Today, my good friend, Chimezie Okobi, and I have written a joint blog regarding the Golden State Warriors and their chances of success during the 2015-16 season. Chim has taken the position that the Warriors are invincible, while I have taken the opposite position. After reading this blog, please comment with know your opinion.
Golden State of Mind
By: Chimezie Okobi
Win, Win or Draw; the
Golden State Warriors have already surpassed early season expectations. Most
“experts” did not pick Golden State to come out of the West and many people
deemed last year’s title to be a combination of good luck and favorable
match-ups against injury-ravaged opponents. This year Golden State has begun a
potentially historic journey to repeat as NBA champions. The Warriors have
looked unbeatable thus far and based on the statistics the Warriors are an
unbeatable force that will go on to win this season’s NBA title (barring
injury). They cannot be beaten.
72-10 Bulls
The Warriors started
the season with an NBA record 24 game winning streak which has put them on pace
to break the NBA all-time record for most wins in a regular season set by the
1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Golden State is 31-2 (as of this article); this has
created buzz as to whether or not Golden State will topple the Bulls’ record.
In 1995-96 Michael Jordan returned for his first full season after his first
retirement to lead the Bulls to a title. That Bulls team was invincible and led
the NBA in points per game, Offense, Defense but played at a slower pace (20th
out of 29 NBA teams). Even with Golden State’s most recent loss at the end of a
seven game road trip, the Warriors are on pace to 72+ wins.
The Blueprint
Golden
State is on a historic pace because they possess two of the NBA’s best shooters
in Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry (more on Curry later). They also have a
prototypical “small ball” power forward in Draymond Green which allows Golden
State to play at a fast pace and defend the perimeter and paint with speed and
quickness. Golden State ranks first (1st) in Offensive Efficiency
per 100 possessions and 1st in points per game; Golden State also
ranks 3rd in pace and 8th in Defense. In short, for a
team to beat the 2015-16 Warriors, that team would need to be able to efficiently
score a lot of points and drastically slow the pace of the game.
This
team is unbeatable because of its elite and efficient three point shooting,
pace and its collapsing defense. Golden State averages 115 points per game. A
team would need to realistically average at least 105 to contend. Currently
there are only three teams (OKC, Phoenix and Sacramento) that average 105
points. To beat the champs, a team must also be able to shoot efficiently from
the field (~45% from the field or better). Golden State leads the league with a
.487 FG%. There are eight (8) teams (in order of efficiency: San Antonio, OKC,
Miami, Cleveland, LA Clippers, Sacramento, Atlanta and Phoenix) that shoot
efficient enough to compete. The other way to compete would be to slow the
game’s pace to prevent a shootout (which favors the more explosive Warriors
team). Currently, there are ten teams that play at a significantly slower pace
than the Warriors. Those teams would also need to shoot efficiently and play
top tier defense to make it a game. Only San Antonio fits the criteria necessary
to challenge the Warriors because San Antonio ranks top 5 in slowest pace,
defense, defensive efficiency and offensive field goal percentage. Whether or
not San Antonio can dictate the pace of the game to Golden State still remains
to be seen. (Note: Cleveland’s stats and
record should not be weighed yet because Cleveland’s “real team” has yet to
play any minutes this season).
Stephen W.
Curry
The main catalyst for
the Warriors’ historic start has been reigning MVP Stephen “Chef” Curry. The
Chef is having a career year; he is averaging a career best in points
(averaging +9 more points this year than in any other year of his career),
steals, rebounds, three point and field goal percentage. This means that Curry
has become more efficient while
shooting and scoring more than he has in the past. This is a positive regression
that is counterintuitive to the norm. It is normal for a player to become less
efficient as they are asked to shoot more, run more of the offense and expend
more energy. It is also the norm to become less efficient when opposing
defenses prepare and defend for a player to take the majority of
shots/possessions for his team. The Warriors have become unstoppable because
Curry is an offensive outlier; a player who has become more efficient when
taking more of his team’s possessions. While Klay and other teammates’ overall
usage has dipped, it is because a shot by Steph Curry has become the most
potent weapon in pro basketball.
Curry’s emergence as
the most efficient shooter and shooter
in basketball has made the Golden State Warriors unbeatable in 2015-16.
Golden State Warriors: Invincible (I Think Not)
By: Sidney O. Minter
The
Golden State Warriors are defending NBA Champions, and have shown no signs of
decline this season. So, to a casual NBA
fan, they may appear to be invincible.
However, much like any great team, they are susceptible to defeat. Do you remember how dominant Mike Tyson was
prior to his first loss? What about the 1985 Georgetown basketball team who
lost to Villanova in the National Championship Game? One thing about sports is that: on any given
day, a more talented team can lose to a less talented team. That, my friends, is what makes athletic
competition so captivating and why there is no such thing as a team that cannot
be defeated. I want to convince you that
the Warriors are not invincible and are not guaranteed to repeat as NBA
Champions.
The
Warriors are too reliant on Steph Curry—who happens to be having one of the
most outstanding seasons in NBA history.
The Warriors cannot win without him because he sets the tone for
everything they do as a team. His
ability to shoot the ball from anywhere, coupled with his masterful ball-handling,
make him indispensable. However, Steph
Curry, just like any other great player, is not immune to injury. Let’s not forget that, just a few years ago,
he experienced a rash of ankle injuries that kept him from playing in a number
of games. Although he has been healthy
the past few seasons, he is currently out of the Warriors lineup because of a
leg injury. Although this injury is not
severe, you never know if it will morph into something that will keep him out
of the lineup for a substantial amount of time.
Remember: Kevin Durant’s foot problems were not thought to be major
issues at first. Without Steph Curry,
the Warriors are still a very good team.
However, without him in the lineup, the probability of them repeating as
NBA champions would be diminished considerably.
The
Warriors play in the Western Conference, which, during the past seven or eight
years, has been the better conference. This year, the Eastern Conference teams have
made up ground in terms of win-loss records.
However, despite the win-loss records of some teams, there are only a
handful of serious contenders for the NBA championship. Of those teams, four hail from the Western
Conference, while one or maybe two hail from the Eastern Conference. So, what does that mean for the
Warriors? It means that in order for
them to repeat as NBA Champions, they will likely have to beat the Spurs,
Thunder and/or the Clippers. Last year,
during their championship run, they did not face any of these teams. The Spurs have a much-improved team with the
acquisition of LeMarcus Aldridge and the emergence and dominance of K. Leonard.
The Thunder have been bitten by the injury bug during the past few years. However, at this point, they have two
top-five players in their respective primes in Russell Westbrook and Kevin
Durant. Anytime you have game-changing
players of their skill level on the floor, they will always have a chance to
win big. Lastly, the Clippers are a team
that is well-coached and has two perennial all-stars. So, the Warriors will have their hands full
if they want to make it to the championship round.
Some
contend that the Warriors are too content to shoot jump shots. Some might argue that this is also their
biggest strength, but I will go with common sense and the history of the game
of basketball. Logically, a team has a
better chance of making a two-point shot from fifteen feet than they do of making
a three-point shot from twenty-four feet.
As great of a shooting team as the Warriors are, they are capable of
having poor shooting nights from the field.
When they face a team—like the Spurs—who have a more diverse offensive
strategy, the Warriors can lose.
The
Cleveland Cavaliers are the biggest threat to the Golden State Warriors. The Cleveland Cavaliers are lead by the best
player in the game, Lebron James. He
nearly willed his undermanned team to an upset of the Warriors during their
championship season. The 2015-16
iteration of the Cavs have developed continuity between its best three
players—Lebron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. This team has the size upfront with Tristan
Thompson, Kevin Love and Mozgov to really dominate the glass. They also have good perimeter defenders and
an all-star point guard who will make Steph Curry work on the defensive
end. They also have a very good shooter
off the bench—Mo Williams (who did not play last year). In short, I believe the Cavs can beat the
Warriors.
The
Warriors are not invincible.
Peace
