Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Contenders Versus Pretenders: A Quick Glimpse into the 2014 NBA Playoffs

The 2013-2014 NBA season has been filled with many twists and turns.  There have been “interesting” hiring and firing decisions, unlikely success stories and surprising underachievers.  These developments have made for an interesting regular season.  Now, it is almost time for the NBA Playoffs.  There are a number of teams that are legitimate NBA Title contenders—let’s discuss those teams.

Miami Heat

Any discussion of contenders must begin with the Miami Heat.  After all, they are the two-time defending champions.  Many basketball experts have hinted at Miami’s inevitable downfall.  They have discussed Dwyane Wade’s age, his knees are still bad, and maybe he just does not have “it” anymore.  The first two positions advanced are true, but if you look at his statistics, he is still an incredibly efficient player.  He is averaging just over 19 points per game and shooting 54% from the field while doing so.  Greg Oden has given the Heat spot minutes here and there.  The Heat have also unveiled a potent “big” lineup featuring Chalmers, Wade, James, Birdman, and Bosh.  This lineup was developed, at least it would seem, to battle the Indiana Pacers.  Once you include Oden in that mix, the Heat appear to have a formidable rotation of “bigs.”  Michael Beasley has been developing quite nicely and could become an important “X” factor.   In short, the Heat’s run still appears to be in full effect.  They remain the champions until a worthy opponent defeats them—whether that happens remains to be seen.  Stay tuned.

The Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have shown great improvement over the past few years.  They have an emerging superstar in Paul George.  They have a great, defensive-minded coach and they are tired of playing the little brother role to the Miami Heat.  That combination has proven to be formidable in the past; however, this year they hope to get over the proverbial hump.  They have incessantly chased the number one seed in the Eastern Conference; they believe securing this seed will ultimately determine whether they are successful in the Playoffs.  By successful, I believe they have adopted a “championship or bust mentality.”   The biggest weakness the Pacers have is their inability to score at critical times.  Sure, George is a good player, but he is not yet able to carry a team each and every night—he is still learning.  Once the Heat put the defensive clamps on Indiana, I predict another Heat victory. 

San Antonio Spurs
Last season’s loss to the Miami Heat is probably still eating at the Spurs.  They squandered a great opportunity.  Either way, they are back with a vengeance this year.  I am always amazed by Gregg Popovich’s ability to keep the same core, yet seamlessly place other players into his system.  I do not think there is a better “system” in the NBA.  Popovich is truly a basketball genius; he is also an asshole (if you do not believe me, watch some of his in-game interviews).  Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are still in tow.  These guys truly are elder statesmen in the NBA.  Despite their ages, each has remained effective and Popovich has done a great job limiting their minutes.  I believe whether they make it to the NBA finals will depend on whom they are paired against in the Western Conference playoffs.   Fast, disciplined teams, such as OKC and maybe LAC could cause problems for the Spurs.  Stay tuned.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Much of this year has belonged to Kevin Durant.  He went on quite a tear just after Westbrook went down.  His incredible run catapulted him into the MVP favorite and some folks (not me) even questioned whether he had surpassed Lebron James as an overall player.  The answer to the latter question is an emphatic ‘no.”  I like the Thunder and believe they have some nice pieces.  Westbrook is back after a number of knee surgeries and appears to be playing at a high level.   Ibaka has really improved his overall game; he is drawing serious consideration for Defensive Player of the Year.   The addition of Caron Butler might prove to be one of the most important moves they have made.  His addition will enable them to go small and have 5 shooters on the court.  In my mind, this lineup would include Wesbrook, Fisher, Durant, Ibaka and Butler.  They would match up well against the Heat and could potentially defeat them at their own game.  However, unlike the Heat who have only one serious competitor in the East, OKC will have three tough rounds of basketball.  The amount of energy they will likely have to expend to reach the Finals could zap their energy.  We shall see.

Los Angeles Clippers
I debated long and hard about whether to include the Clippers on the list of contenders.  I have included them for a number of reasons.  First, Blake Griffin finally appears to have crossed the line into superstardom.  He has proven this year that he is more than a one-dimensional player.  However, basketball fans know that performing well in the regular season is completely different than performing in the Playoffs.  I still cannot get the picture out of my mind of Zach Randolph tossing Blake Griffin around like a rag doll.  He has a lot to prove in the Playoffs.  Doc Rivers coaches this team and he is arguably one of the best coaches in the NBA.  He coaches defense and his players respect him.  Lastly, and probably the biggest reason I believe they are contenders, is Chris Paul.  He has had a string of dominant Playoff performances that have ended prematurely.  I think he realizes that he is not competing against his contemporaries as much as he is against all-time great players.  The player he is most often compared to—Isaiah Thomas—has two NBA Championships.  Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, and Magic Johnson each have at least one ring.   They have the right pieces in place, so it is now on them to get it done.  We shall see.

There are other teams that might have some Playoff success, but I think the five teams I have identified are the forerunners.



Peace

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